外商直接投资的经济效应分析——以江苏省为例

Analysis of the Economic Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Jiangsu Province

本文根据江苏省吸收外商直接投资(FDI)的实际情况,基于1978-2020年江苏省实际数据,从外商投资地理分布、投资行业分布、投资区域分布和投资方式四个角度定量分析江苏省利用外资的发展历程和现状。在此基础上,探讨了FDI对江苏省经济效应的影响,分为经济增长效应、对外贸易效应和技术溢出效应。结论发现首先江苏省FDI与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系和双向的格兰杰因果关系,FDI与经济增长呈正相关关系。其次,采用协整检验和误差修正模型检验江苏省FDI与对外贸易之间的关系,发现江苏省FDI与对外贸易同样呈正相关关系,从长期看FDI是促进江苏省对外贸易发展的原因。最后,通过回归模型验证了江苏省FDI具有正向技术溢出效应。

Based on the actual situation of foreign direct investment(FDI)absorption in Jiangsu Province,this paper quantitatively analyzes the development history and current situation of foreign investment utilization in Jiangsu Province from four perspectives:geographical distribution of foreign investment,structural distribution of investment,regional distribution of investment and investment mode,based on the actual data of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2020.On this basis,the effects of FDI on the economy of Jiangsu province are explored,including economic growth effect,foreign trade effect and technology spillover effect.The results show that,firstly,there is a long-term stable relationship and two-way Granger causality between FDI and economic growth in Jiangsu Province,and FDI is positively related to economic growth.Secondly,the co-integration test and error correction model were used to examine the relationship between FDI and foreign trade in Jiangsu Province,and it was found that FDI and foreign trade in Jiangsu Province were also positively correlated,and the introduction of FDI was the reason for the development of foreign trade in Jiangsu Province in the long run.Finally,the regression model verifies that FDI in Jiangsu Province has a positive technology spillover effect.