脑卒中患者康复锻炼低依从性的风险预测模型

Risk prediction model for low compliance with rehabilitation exercise in stroke patients

目的分析脑卒中患者康复锻炼低依从的影响因素并构建其预测模型。方法采用便利抽样法选取2020年7月至2021年6月于嘉兴市第一医院就诊的300例脑卒中患者作为研究对象,采用单因素分析和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选脑卒中患者康复锻炼低依从的独立影响因素,并基于影响因素的系数构建锻炼低依从风险预测模型。结果300例患者中低依从173例,低依从率57.7%。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示年龄、职业工作状态、婚姻、共同居住和恐动均是影响脑卒中患者康复锻炼依从性的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。脑卒中患者康复锻炼低依从风险预测模型的拟合度良好(P=0.890),曲线下面积为0.824(95%CI:0.776~0.871),敏感度72.3%,特异性78.0%。结论研究构建的风险预测模型的预测效能良好,可作为预测脑卒中患者康复锻炼依从性的一种评估工具。

Objective To analyze the influencing factors of low compliance of rehabilitation exercise in stroke patients and construct the prediction model.Methods The convenience sampling method was used to select 300 stroke patients in the First Hospital of Jiaxing from July 2020 to June 2021 as research objects.Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the independent influencing factors of low compliance with rehabilitation exercise in stroke patients,and the risk prediction model of low compliance with exercise was built based on the coefficient of influencing factors.Results Among the 300 patients,173 had low compliance,and the low compliance rate was 57.7%.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age,occupational working status,marriage,co-habitation and fear of activity were independent factors affecting the compliance of rehabilitation exercise in stroke patients(P<0.05).The risk prediction model of low compliance with rehabilitation exercise for stroke patients had a good fit(P=0.890).The area under curve was 0.824(95%CI:0.776-0.871),the sensitivity was 72.3%,and the specificity was 78.0%.Conclusion The risk prediction model constructed in this study has good prediction efficiency,which can be used as an evaluation tool for predicting exercise compliance of stroke patients.