东道国基础设施质量对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家的实证分析

The Influence of Infrastructure Quality of Host Country on China’s Import and Export Trade:Based on empirical analysis of 51 countries along the Belt and Road

基础设施建设是经济社会发展的重要支撑,对国家经贸关系进一步发展具有桥梁作用。基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家2011—2019年面板数据,构建拓展引力模型实证分析东道国基础设施质量分别对中国进口与出口的影响。研究发现:东道国基础设施质量会显著促进中国的进口与出口贸易,但对中国进口贸易促进作用强于出口,且东道国GDP增长促进了中国进口与出口贸易增加,其对中国进口贸易促进作用大于出口;而东道国与中国的地理距离对中国进口贸易限制作用大于出口,东道国与中国为邻国、与中国具有共同语言及签订自由贸易协定会推动中国对其进出口贸易增长。在此基础上,提出促进中国与沿线国家进出口贸易的对策建议。

Infrastructure construction is an important support for economic and social development,and plays a bridge role in the further development of national economic and trade relations.Based on the panel data of 51 countries along the belt and Road from 2011 to 2019,an expanding gravity model was constructed to empirically analyze the impacts of infrastructure quality of host countries on China’s import and export trade.The findings are as follows:Quality of the host country infrastructure significantly promote China’s import and export,but for the export of Chinese import trade promotion effect is stronger than and the host country GDP growth promoted the China import and export trade increases,its export is more effects on imports of Chinese trade promotion,and the host country and China’s geographic distance function is greater than the export trade restrictions on Chinese imports,Host countries that are neighbors to China,share common language with China and sign free trade agreements with China promote the growth of China’s import and export trade with them.On this basis,some suggestions are put forward to promote the import and export trade between China and the countries along the belt and Road.