湖南省有色金属工业场地时空演变及其预测

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Nonferrous Metal Industrial Sites in Hunan Province

通过收集大量湖南省有色金属工业场地的最新数据,从省级尺度进行分析,反映有色金属行业演变历程,为未来产业布局提供参考。以湖南省有色金属工业场地为研究对象,通过核密度分析方法和多变量自回归模型,揭示其时空分布规律,并预测其未来发展状况。研究结果表明:(1)1990—2019年有色金属工业场地数量明显增加,形成了以郴州为“核心集聚区”,多城市为“次核心集聚区”,并从集聚区中心不断向边缘扩散的空间演化格局;(2)多变量自回归模型能够很好地表达主控因子与场地数量的时序关联,模拟精度较高;(3)模型预测显示,在经济社会持续稳定发展的情景下,2020—2025年湖南省各市州有色金属工业场地的数量呈增长趋势,郴州、衡阳的采选和冶炼场地的增量和数量均较大,湘西的采选场地增量和数量较大,益阳、娄底的冶炼场地增量和数量较大。研究思路及方法对大区域范围内的工业或第三产业运营场所数量或规模的时空模拟及预测有借鉴意义。

By collecting a large number of the latest data of non-ferrous metal industrial sites in Hunan Province,the evolution process of non-ferrous metal industry is analyzed from the provincial scale,which could provide reference for future industrial layout.Taking the non-ferrous metal industrial sites in Hunan Province as the research object,their temporal and spatial distribution and law are analyzed,and their future development is predicted based on kernel density analysis method and multivariable autoregressive model.The results showed that:(1)From 1990 to 2019,the number of non-ferrous metal industrial sites increased significantly,forming a spatial evolution pattern with Chenzhou as the"core agglomeration area"and many cities as the"sub core agglomeration area",and continuously spreading from the center of the agglomeration area to the edge.(2)The multivariable autoregressive model could well express the time series correlation between the main factors and the number of sites,and the simulation accuracy was high.(3)The results of model prediction showed that under the scenario of sustained and stable economic and social development,the number of non-ferrous metal industrial sites in cities and districts of Hunan Province will increase from 2020 to 2025.The increment and number of mining,dressing and smelting sites in Chenzhou and Hengyang are large,the increment and number of mining and dressing sites in Xiangxi are large,and the increment and number of smelting sites in Yiyang and Loudi are large.The ideas and methods proposed can be used as reference to the spatial-temporal simulation and prediction of the number or scale of industrial or tertiary industry operation sites in a large region.