江西省油菜产业成本效益系统动力学仿真分析

Analysis of Cost-benefit System Dynamics Simulation of Rapeseed Industry in Jiangxi Province

基于江西油菜种植户调查数据,利用系统动力学模型分析了油菜产业各环节的成本收益,评估了菜油价格、油菜单产、产油率、单位人工成本等变量对农户种植油菜成本收益的影响。结果表明:江西油菜产业发展不平衡,各地种植油菜经济效益存在较大差异;菜油价格、油菜籽单产、产油率是影响油菜经济效益的较为敏感因素。据此,提出了要推广油菜高效种植技术、延长油菜产业链、强化政策支持效应、加强机械化设备研发、促进土地流转等建议。

Based on the survey data of rapeseed farmers in Jiangxi Province,a system dynamics model was constructed to analyze the cost-benefit of each link of the rapeseed industry,and the impact of changes in rapeseed oil price,rapeseed yield per unit area,oil yield rate,unit labor cost and other variables on the cost-benefit of rapeseed planting was evaluated.The results showed that the development of rapeseed industry in Jiangxi was unbalanced,and the economic benefits of rapeseed planting in different regions were different.Rapeseed oil price,rapeseed yield per unit area and oil yield rate were sensitive factors affecting rapeseed economic benefits.Therefore,some suggestions were put forward to promote the efficient planting technology of rapeseed,extend the industrial chain of rapeseed,strengthen the effect of policy support,strengthen the research and development of mechanized equipment,and promote land transfer.