2000—2019年云南省蔬菜增产时空分异与贡献因素分析

Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Contributing Factors of Vegetable Yield Increase in Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2019

以云南省的16个州(市)为基本研究单元,利用变异系数、泰尔指数、地区增产贡献率、累计增产贡献率和LMDI模型,分析2000—2019年云南省16个州(市)的蔬菜播种面积和产量变化,对其增产格局和增产贡献因素进行量化研究。结果表明:云南省16个州(市)的蔬菜播种面积和产量均呈逐年增长的发展态势。全省蔬菜总增产的贡献量中,红河州、曲靖市、玉溪市、楚雄州、昆明市这5个州(市)的累计贡献率达到67.91%,常年蔬菜产区、冬春蔬菜产区、夏秋蔬菜产区的贡献率分别为50.18%、42.89%、6.93%。云南省三大蔬菜产区的区间差异及区内差异与总体差异的变动趋势基本一致,均呈现逐渐缩小的运动轨迹。其中常年蔬菜产区的内部差异对总体差异的贡献度最大,夏秋蔬菜产区的内部差异波动最平稳。云南省播种面积贡献率远高于单产贡献率。文山州、西双版纳州、怒江州、昆明市、大理州、玉溪市和迪庆州等7个州(市)的单产因素贡献率高,丽江市、临沧市、楚雄州、红河州、曲靖市、昭通市、普洱市、德宏州和保山市等9个州(市)的播种面积因素贡献率高。常年蔬菜产区和冬春蔬菜产区的播种面积贡献率略高,夏秋蔬菜产区的单产贡献率较高。为促进云南蔬菜产业的高质量发展,提出了根据市场导向调整蔬菜品种结构、借助科技创新提升产品质量、推动蔬菜产业融合发展等对策建议。

The 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province were taken as the basic research unit,and the changes of vegetable sowing area and yield in Yunnan Province and 16 prefectures and cities from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed by the coefficient of variation,Theil index,regional yield increase contribution rate,cumulative yield increase contribution rate and LMDI model.The yield increase pattern and yield increase contribution factors were quantitatively studied.The results showed that the planting area and yield of vegetables in 16 prefectures and cities of Yunnan Province increased year by year.Among the total contribution of vegetable production in the province,the cumulative contribution rate of Honghe Prefecture,Qujing City,Yuxi City,Chuxiong Prefecture and Kunming City reached 67.91%,and the perennial vegetable producing areas,winter and spring vegetable producing areas and summer and autumn vegetable producing areas were 50.18%,42.89%and 6.93%respectively.The variation trend of interval difference and intra regional difference in the three vegetable producing areas in Yunnan Province was basically consistent with the overall difference,showing a gradually narrowing trajectory.The contribution of internal differences in perennial vegetable producing areas to the overall differences was the largest,and the internal differences in summer and autumn vegetable producing areas were the most stable.The contribution rate of sowing area in Yunnan was much higher than that of per unit yield.Seven states and cities including Wenshan,Xishuangbanna,Nujiang,Kunming,Dali,Yuxi and Diqing had the highest contribution rate of the factor of yield per unit area,while nine states and cities including Lijiang,Lincang,Chuxiong,Honghe,Qujing,Zhaotong,Pu’er,Dehong and Baoshan had the highest contribution rate of the factor of sowing area.The area contribution rate of perennial vegetable producing areas and winter and spring vegetable producing areas was slightly higher,and the unit yield contribution rate of summer and autumn vegetable producing areas was higher.In order to promote the high-quality development of Yunnan vegetable industry,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as adjusting the vegetable variety structure according to the market orientation,improving the product quality with the help of scientific and technological innovation,and promoting the integrated development of vegetable industry.