人口城镇化背景下产业技术创新、结构调整和空间聚集对碳排放的影响研究

Effects of Industrial Technology Innovation, Structural Adjustment and Spatial Agglomeration on Carbon Emissions in Context of Population Urbanization

在“双碳”政策背景下,研究了不同人口城镇化水平下,产业技术进步、结构调整、空间聚集对碳排放的影响水平。基于2005—2019年中国省级面板数据,构建门槛模型,以人口城镇化水平作为门槛变量,以城镇人均专利申请受理量、二三产业产值比例、区位熵指数作为解释变量,分别分析了产业技术进步、产业结构和空间聚集对碳排放的影响,并估算了其对应的阈值。结果表明:在产业发展过程中,技术进步能够显著减少碳排放,但第三产业比重增加和产业空间聚集对碳排放的促进效应显著为正。进一步研究发现,当人口城镇化率超过83.48%时,技术进步对碳排放的抑制效应更为明显;当人口城镇化率超过86.20%和86.35%时,产业结构调整与空间聚集对碳排放的促进效应均增强。因此,基于2021年我国常住人口城镇化率水平已达到64.72%的现实背景,为了使城镇产业在人口城镇化稳步上升的背景下显著地控制碳排放,应该在坚持通过提高人力资本推动技术进步的同时,优化产业结构、鼓励城镇人口向低碳排放的第三产业就业、合理布局城镇产业,打造满足城镇人口需求、技术先进的产业集群。

Under the background of“dual carbon”policy,the impact of industrial technology innovation,structural adjustment and spatial agglomeration on carbon emissions under different levels of population urbanization was studied.Based on the panel data of Chinese provincial level from 2005 to 2019,the threshold model was constructed.The level of urbanization was taken as the threshold variable,and the technological progress,industrial structure and industrial agglomeration of urban industries were taken as explanatory variables.The impacts of the three on carbon emissions were studied,and the corresponding threshold values were estimated.The results showed that in the process of industrial development,technological progress significantly inhibited carbon emissions,but structural adjustment and spatial agglomeration significantly promoted carbon emissions.When the urbanization rate was more than 83.48%,the inhibition effect of technological progress on carbon emissions was more obvious.When the population urbanization rate was more than 86.20%and 86.35%respectively,the promotion effect of industrial structure adjustment and spatial agglomeration on carbon emissions increased.Therefore,based on the fact that the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China has reached 64.72%in 2021,in order to significantly control carbon emissions of urban industries under the background of steady increase of population urbanization,we should promote technological progress by improving human capital,optimize the industrial structure,encourage urban people to work in the tertiary industry with low carbon emissions,rationally layout urban industries,and build industrial clusters that meet the needs of the urban population and are technologically advanced.