人工智能技术对制造业资本溢价与技能溢价影响的区域异质性研究

Research on Regional Heterogeneity of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technology on Manufacturing Capital Premium and Skill Premium

人工智能技术会影响资本溢价和技能溢价的观点在国际上已经达成共识,但没有形成统一的研究结论。在我国劳动收入份额持续走低的形势下,有必要探讨人工智能技术对资本溢价和技能溢价带来的影响。聚焦我国制造业,构建资本溢价和技能溢价的内生模型,数理演绎人工智能技术对二者的影响机制,并根据我国情势分别对人工智能技术应用先发地区和后发地区的资本溢价和技能溢价走势提出命题,基于我国制造业1993—2019年的省际数据,应用四方程标准化供给面系统法进行了实证检验,进一步地,区分先发地区和后发地区对人工智能技术影响资本溢价和技能溢价的直接效应和偏效应进行了回归分析。研究结果表明:先发地区资本溢价呈微降趋势,技能溢价呈现显著极化态势;后发地区资本溢价呈上升趋势,技能溢价处于U型低谷区。相较于后发地区,先发地区资本溢价和技能溢价对人工智能技术的反应更敏感、作用效果更强,且人工智能技术可以通过要素结构、技术效率结构缓解资本溢价水平;人工智能技术可以通过劳动结构、技能效率结构增强技能溢价水平。

The view that artificial intelligence(AI)technology will affect capital premium and skill premium has reached international consensus,but no unified research conclusion has been reached.Under the situation that the share of labor income in China continues to decline,it is necessary to explore the impact of AI technology on capital premium and skill premium.Focus on China’s manufacturing industry,build an endogenous model of capital premium and skill premium,mathematically deduce the impact mechanism of AI technology on them,and put forward propositions on the trend of capital premium and skill premium in the first and second developing regions of AI technology application according to the situation in China.Based on the provincial data of China’s manufacturing industry from 1993 to 2019,an empirical test was carried out using the four equation standardized supply surface system method.Furthermore,the direct effect and partial effect of AI technology on capital premium and skill premium are regressed by distinguishing the first developing region and the second developing region.The results show that the capital premium in the first mover regions shows a slight downward trend,while the skill premium shows a significant polarization trend;The capital premium in the late developing regions shows an upward trend,and the skill premium is in a U-shaped low area.Compared with the late developing regions,the capital premium and skill premium in the early developing regions are more sensitive and effective to AI technology,and AI technology can mitigate the level of capital premium through factor structure and technical efficiency structure;AI technology can enhance the skill premium level through labor structure and skill efficiency structure.