东道国数字经济与中国OFDI对“一带一路”沿线国家产业结构优化的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Host Country Digital Economy and Chinese OFDI on the Optimization of Industrial Structure of Countries along the Belt and Road

在数字经济背景下,与中国合作对于“一带一路”沿线国家来说十分重要。中国的投资和东道国数字经济的发展都能激发当地资源的重新配置。基于2007—2020年34个沿线国家的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,实证分析中国对沿线国家对外直接投资和东道国的数字经济发展对当地产业结构优化的作用存在异质性。研究发现:在2015年之前,中国OFDI对于沿线国家产业结构具有显著优化作用,2015年之后受基础设施建设大量投资的冲击,导致产业结构优化逆转;当地数字经济发展水平较低且参差不齐,较高数字经济发展水平对于本地产业结构合理化具有正的显著影响,对于产业结构的高级化具有负的显著影响,数字经济水平较低的国家影响不显著;此外,当地劳动力和城市化也是影响产业结构优化的重要因素。因此,我国对沿线国家投资结构需要相应调整,控制基础设施建设投资规模和节奏,扩大服务业以及数字经济投资。

In the context of the digital economy,cooperation with China is very important for countries along"the Belt and Road".Both Chinese investment and the development of the digital economy in the host country can stimulate local reallocation of resources.Based on the panel data of 34 countries along the route from 2007 to 2020,this paper adopts a fixed-effect model to empirically analyze the heterogeneity of China′s foreign direct investment in countries along the route and the digital economic development of the host country on the optimization of local industrial structure.The study found that before 2015,China′s OFDI played a significant role in optimizing the industrial structure of the countries along the route.After 2015,the impact of a large amount of investment in infrastructure construction led to the reversal of the industrial structure.The development level of the local digital economy is low and uneven.A higher level of digital economy development has a positive and significant impact on the rationalization of the local industrial structure,and a negative and significant impact on the advanced industrial structure.Countries with a low level of digital economy have no significant impact.In addition,local labor and urbanization are also important factor affecting industrial structure optimization.Therefore,my country needs to adjust the investment structure of countries along the route accordingly,control the scale and pace of investment in infrastructure construction,and expand investment in the service industry and the scale of investment in the digital economy.