蒙特卡洛模拟在动物流行病学研究中的应用

Application of Monte Carlo simulation in animal epidemiology studies

蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo simulation, MCS)是近年新兴的一种通过输入参数进行快捷高效仿真模拟的方法,可用于研究病原体在畜群中发生、发展和分布的规律。动物疫病的发生受多种因素影响,如饲养管理条件、传染源及传播途径等,通过MCS输入上述影响因素来进行随机抽样或统计试验,可以模拟病原在某一地区的感染情况。文章主要阐述了MCS的原理、建立因素及在动物流行病学中的应用,以期为预防及控制动物疫病提供新的思路和技术参考。

Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) is a fast and efficient simulation method based on input parameters, which can be used to study the occurrence, development and distribution of pathogens in herds. The occurrence of animal diseases is affected by a variety of factors, such as feeding and management conditions, sources of infection and transmission routes, etc. MCS input the above factors to conduct random sampling or statistical tests, so as to simulate the infection of pathogens in a certain area. In this paper, the principles, establishment factors and application of MCS in animal epidemiology were reviewed, in order to provide new ideas and technical reference for the prevention and control of animal diseases.