神秘制块工厂悖论及其消解

Mystery Cube Factory Paradox and Its Solutions

范·弗拉森于1989年提出神秘制块工厂悖论,旨在质疑无差别原则的合理性。自该悖论提出以来,哲学家们相继提出了多种解决方案。这些方案可概括为“拒斥证据对称的假设”“重构无差别原则的表征方式”和“否定信念度对象的同一性”三大类。这三类解悖方案各有特色,分析这些方案有助于我们进一步理解无差别原则,从而有助于我们寻找更坚实的概率分析基础。

Mystery Cube Factory Paradox presented by van Fraassen in 1989 has been a great challenge for the rationality of the Principle of Indifference.Since the paradox has been raised,philosophers have proposed a variety of solutions.These solutions can be summarized into three categories:“rejecting the assumption of evidential symmetry” “reformulating the representation of the Principle of Indifference” and “denying the identity of objects of credence”.These three kinds of solutions have their own characteristics.The analysis of these solutions will helps us further understand the Principle of Indifference,which in turn helps us to find a firmer basis for probability analysis.