人口流动下的地方财政教育支出:转移支付与自有财力的作用

The Effects of Local Fiscal Expenditure on Education under Population Relocation:Mediation through Transfer Payment and Own General Budget Revenue

中国区域经济正在分化发展,人口流出地与人口流入地的财政教育支出差距趋于扩大。偏向性转移支付一直是上级政府寻求下级公共教育均等化的主要方式。在区域经济分化背景下,转移支付的有效性有待重新考察。基于2010-2018年全国地市层面数据,研究发现,偏向人口流出地和教育事业的转移支付并未产生最理想效果,人口流出地政府并未因转移支付的偏向性而侧重教育支出。究其原因,地方政府的转移支付财力和自有财力之间存在替代效应,虽然转移支付在人口流出地更多转化为教育支出,但当地政府自有财力对教育支出的作用减弱。结果表明,人口流出地政府缺乏教育支出动机,既有转移支付体系和地方治理模式亟待改革。

As regional economic development in China becomes divided, there is a growing gap of public educational expenditure between regions with population outflows and those with population inflows. Superior governments consistently attempt to equalize local public education by biased transfer payments. Faced with the regional economic division, effectiveness of transfer payments urgently needs to be revisited. Based on national prefectural-level data from 2010 to 2018, the paper finds that transfer payments favoring population-outflowing regions and public education failed to serve the desired function, as governments of population-outflowing regions did not put particular emphasis on educational expenditure. The reason lies in the substitution effect between transfer payment and own general budget revenue. Although more transfer payment transmuted into expenditure on education in population-outflowing regions, the effect of general budget revenue was weakened. This paper indicates that governments of population-outflowing regions are reluctant to invest in education so existing transfer payment system and local governance urgently need to be reformed.