基于水动力模型的泥石流风险分析

Risk Analysis of Debris Flow Based on Hydrodynamic Model

泥石流是一种破坏力较强的地质灾害,它不仅对当地的地质环境造成巨大的破坏,还会严重影响当地居民的生产与生活。因此,为减轻泥石流所造成的损害,对泥石流风险进行分析就至为重要。以水动力模型为研究依据,以降水、来流等自然条件为泥石流发生的推动因子,加之地形、地质、植被、人口等影响因子,构建了泥石流风险分析模型。选取广西5个市作为研究区域,采用河网分级编码方法对河网水系信息作概化处理。根据粗糙集理论,采用了一种可以从客观角度上确定影响因子权值的综合权重计算方法,构建了泥石流灾害危险性评判机制。将计算模拟结果置于广西地质灾害分布统计与2011年全州县泥石流灾害事件中进行对比验证,结果表明基于水动力模型的泥石流风险分析是合理且可靠的。

Debris flow is a kind of geological disaster with strong destructive force.It not only causes great damage to the local geological environment,but also seriously affects the production and life of local residents.Therefore,to reduce the damage caused by debris flow,it is very important to analyze the risk of debris flow.Based on the hydrodynamic model and taking topography,geological formation,plant mulching and demographic distribution as the impact factors,a mathematical model of debris flow drove by rainfall and river runoff was established.Five cities of Guangxi were selected as the research area,and the rivers information was generalized by the river net codification.According to rough set theory,a comprehensive weight calculation method which can determine the weight of impact factors from an objective point of view was adopted,thus a risk analysis model of debris flow was established.Indeed,the numerical simulation results were compared and verified with the distribution statistics of geological disasters in Guangxi and the debris flow disaster events in Quanzhou County in 2011,and the results show that the mathematical model of debris flow based on hydrodynamic theory is reasonable and feasible.