全球民粹主义测量(上)

Measuring Populism Worldwide(Part Ⅰ)

民粹主义研究迅速兴起,但有关这一现象的系统性全球实证证据却远远滞后。如何能以持久、有效且可靠的方式测量政党价值观,从而有助于识别遍及全球的各种民粹主义?为了解决这个问题,本文第一部分提纲挈领地概述了论文的概念框架。第二部分叙述了论文的研究设计。“全球政党调查”在专家调研的基础上,汇总分析了1861名专家的评价,将调研扩展到全球范围,覆盖163个国家的1043个政党,并对民粹主义的测量方式进行了创新。第三部分总结了一些主要的跨国研究结果。第四部分展示了稳健性检验,这些检验证实,新的“全球政党调查”对意识形态价值观和民粹主义政党的评估与之前的一些测评始终具有相关性。第五部分是结论部分,不仅总结了研究的主要发现,而且分析了该数据库在理解民粹主义方面所具有的潜在价值。

Populism studies have rapidly burgeoned but systematic global empirical evidence about this phenomenon has lagged behind. How can party values be measured in consistent, valid, and reliable ways,facilitating identification of varieties of populism in countries around the world? To address this issue,part Ⅰ outlines the conceptual framework. Part Ⅱ describes the research design. The Global Party Survey(GPS) replicates previous expert surveys, expands coverage worldwide, and incorporates innovative scaled measures of populism. It draws upon estimates from 1,861 experts and covers 1,043 political parties in 163 countries(see www.GlobalPartySurvey.org). Part Ⅲ summarizes some key cross-national results. Part Ⅳ presents robustness tests which confirm that the new GPS estimates of ideological values and populist parties are consistently correlated with several previous measures. The conclusion in part Ⅴ summarizes the main findings and considers the potential uses of the data set for understanding populism as a global phenomenon.