基于MaxEnt模型的怒江金丝猴潜在适生区预测

Prediction of potential suitable area of Rhinopithecus strykeri based on MaxEnt model

怒江金丝猴是最新发现的世界上第五种金丝猴,种群数量极少,为我国一级重点保护野生动物。为探究怒江金丝猴的适生状况,基于怒江金丝猴的现代地理分布使用MaxEnt模型预测其现代及未来气候条件下的潜在适生分布区,并使用ENMeval数据包对参数进行调整,采用受试者工作特征曲线和刀切法对预测结果进行检验。研究结果表明:在最优参数下,MaxEnt模型在预测怒江金丝猴的适生区时表现良好,AUC值达到0.9995。温度变化系数、最冷季度平均温度、最冷季度降水量和归一化植被指数是影响怒江金丝猴适生区分布的主导变量。现代气候条件下,怒江金丝猴的高适生区集中于怒江两岸的高黎贡山与怒山,面积为6207km^(2);未来气候条件下,伴随全球变暖,怒江金丝猴在中国西南部的适生区向外扩散延伸至金沙江,各类型适生区面积均有所增加。

Rhinopithecus strykeri is the latest discovered fifth species of Rhinopithecus in the world.In order to explore the fitness of R.strykeri,based on the modern geographical distribution of R.strykeri,MaxEnt model is used to predict its potential suitable distribution area under modern and future climate conditions.The parameters are adjusted by ENMeval data package, and the prediction results are tested by receiver operating characteristic curve and Jackknife method.The results show that under the optimal parameter, MaxEnt model performs well with AUC value reaching 0.9995.Temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of coldest quarter and normalized difference vegetation index are the dominant variables.The modern high suitability area of R.strykeri is concentrated in Gaoligong Mountain and Nu Mountain on both sides of the Nujiang River.Under the future climate conditions, with the increase of temperature, R.strykeri will spread outward in the suitable areas in Southwest China to the Jinsha River, and all types of suitable areas will increase.