基于系统动力学的交通运输碳排放系统仿真与低碳情景研究

Simulation of Transportation Carbon Emission System and Low-carbon Scenario Research Based on System Dynamics

低碳交通对我国的生态文明和可持续发展有重要意义,是加快推进绿色发展、建设美丽中国的关键。以系统动力学为基础,建立交通运输碳排放系统动力学模型,综合分析社会经济、交通运输、能源、环境子系统变量之间的因果关系,检验模型真实性并对交通运输碳排放相关指标进行仿真预测,设计四种低碳发展情景分析交通运输碳排放趋势。研究结果显示:现行政策下,交通运输能源消耗量与二氧化碳排放量将呈现逐年上升趋势,二氧化碳排放强度将呈现波动下降趋势,优化运输结构、低碳技术创新是推动交通运输行业的低碳发展的有效路径。

Low-carbon transportation is of great significance to Chinese ecological civilization and sustainable development,and is the key to accelerating green development and building a beautiful China. Based on system dynamics, establish a system dynamics model of transportation carbon emissions, comprehensively analyze the causal relationship between variables in socio-economic, transportation, energy and environmental subsystems, test the authenticity of the model, and analyze the relevant indicators of transportation carbon emissions. Carry out simulation prediction and design four low-carbon development scenarios to analyze the carbon emission trend of transportation. The research results show that under the current policy, the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of transportation will show an upward trend year by year, the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions will show a fluctuating downward trend. Optimizing the transportation structure and low-carbon technology innovation are valid paths to promote the low-carbon development of the transportation industry.