嘉陵江永宁河流域径流量变化及其对降水量变化的响应

Runoff Variation and Its Response to Precipitation Variation in Yongning River Basin of Jialing River

为研究永宁河流域径流量变化对降水量变化的响应关系,本文利用流域内实测资料,采用Pearson线性相关法、Kendall秩次相关法、Spearman秩次相关法、有序聚类法、Lee-Heghinian法对径流量、降水量的年内分配、季节分配、年际变化响应进行了分析。结果表明,流域降水量与径流量相关性较差,年内分配极不均匀,且在月、季节分配上不同步,径流量对降水量的响应较缓慢;年际变化均呈显著减少趋势,降水量突变年份在1993年,径流量突变年份在1968年,变化响应关系不强烈。研究成果可为区域水资源规划与利用、防汛抗旱、水电开发等提供数据支持。

In order to study the response of runoff variation to precipitation variation in Yongning River Basin,based on the measured data in Yongning River Basin,this paper adopts Pearson linear correlation method,Kendall rank correlation method,Spearman rankcorrelation method,sequential clustering method and Lee-Heghinian method to analyze the annual distribution,seasonal distribution and interannual variation responses of runoff and precipitation. The results show that the correlation between precipitation and runoff is poor,and the annual distribution is very uneven. The monthly and seasonal distribution is not synchronous,and the runoff responds slowly to precipitation. The interannual variation shows a significant decreasing trend. The year of precipitation abrupt change was 1993,and the year of runoff abrupt change was 1968. The change response relationship is not strong. The research results can provide data support for regional water resources planning and utilization,flood control and drought relief,hydropower development,etc.