改进可公度法的丰满流域极端径流年预报

Annual prediction of extreme runoff in Fengman Watershed by improved commensurable method

可公度信息预报技术是一种自然灾害预报技术,可用于流域极端径流年预报。可公度预报包括三元、五元、七元可公度预报,如何综合多元可公度计算结果确定预报结论值得商榷。本文在点面结合可公度方法计算结果的基础上,引入Topsis-模糊评判法,综合评价多元可公度特征,以及极端丰水年和极端枯水年可公度特征,提高极端径流年预报的准确率。并以松花江流域为例,进行2000—2018年极端径流年预报,结果表明,改进的方法能够提高极端径流年预报的准确率。

As a natural disaster prediction technology,the commensurable information prediction technology can be used for the annual prediction of extreme runoff in the watershed.The commensurable prediction includes three-,five-and sevenelement commensurable prediction,and how to synthesize the results of multiple commensurable calculation to determine the prediction conclusion is worth discussing.Based on the calculation results of the point-plane combination commensurable method,this paper introduces Topsis-fuzzy evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the characteristics of multiple commensurability,as well as the characteristics of extreme wet year and extreme dry year,so as to improve the accuracy of the annual extreme runoff prediction.Taking Songhuajiang River Watershed as an example,the annual extreme runoff prediction from 2000 to 2018 is carried out.The results show that the improved method can improve the accuracy of the annual extreme runoff prediction.