考虑决策规则异质性的地铁应急疏散选择行为研究

Study on Selection Behavior of Subway Emergency Evacuation Considering the Heterogeneity of Decision Rules

为深入研究乘客在地铁应急疏散选择中的决策规则,考虑决策者的个体选择偏好与所面临决策环境的差异性,从相同决策者在不同情景下和不同决策者在相同情景下遵循的决策规则两个角度出发,分别建立混合Logit模型、广义随机后悔最小化模型和前景理论模型。通过将模型应用于上海世纪大道地铁站问卷调查数据,结果表明地铁应急疏散选择行为中存在决策规则异质性,即相同决策者在不同情景中遵循的决策规则不同,相同的决策者在到出口距离较近的情景中遵循后悔最小,在到出口距离较远的情景中遵循前景最大,在到出口距离更远的情景中遵循效用最大的决策规则;不同决策者在同一情景中遵循的决策规则不同,到该站的目的为通勤、上/下学但并非几乎每天都来的决策者在相同情景中遵循效用最大,到该站的目的为购物餐饮娱乐的决策者遵循前景最大,换乘或其他的决策者遵循后悔最小。决策规则的异质性在地铁应急疏散选择行为研究中不可忽视,将为制定合理的应急疏散策略提供理论依据。

In order to further study the decision rules of passengers in subway emergency evacuation,this study considers the selection preference of decision makers and the difference of decision-making environment,and establishes the mixed Logit model,the generalized random regret minimization model and the prospect theory model respectively from two perspectives:decision rules followed by the same decision maker in different scenarios and different decision makers in the same scenario.By applying the model to the questionnaire survey data of Shanghai Century Avenue Subway Station,the results show that there is heterogeneity of decision rules in subway emergency evacuation selection behavior,that is,the same decision makers follow different decision rules in different scenarios.The same decision makers follow the minimum regret in the scenario where the distance to the exit is relatively short,follow the maximum prospect in the scenario where the distance to the exit is far,and follow the decision rule of utility maximiization in the scenario where the distance to the exit is farther.Different decision makers have different decision rules in the same situation.The decision makers who go to the station for commuting,going to/off school but not coming almost every day follow the decision rule of utility maximization in the same scenario,the decision makers who go to the station for shopping,dining and entertainment follow the biggest prospect,and the decision makers who go to the station for transfer or other reasons follow the minimum regret.The heterogeneity of decision rules cannot be ignored in the study of selection behavior of subway emergency evacuation.This study will provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of reasonable emergency evacuation strategies.