基于贸易网络视角的中国苜蓿草进口多元化可能性分析

Analysis of the Possibility of China’s Alfalfa Import Diversification Based on Trade Network Perspective

随着国内乳业和畜牧业的快速发展,中国苜蓿草进口量增幅显著,但是进口来源仍然高度集中。在新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延、俄乌冲突持续、全球供应链断裂风险加剧的背景下,提高进口来源多元化水平对于稳定中国苜蓿草供应和促进相关产业发展无疑具有重要意义。本文利用复杂网络分析法,基于1996—2020年全球苜蓿草贸易数据,构建了全球苜蓿草贸易网络,从总体、区域和国别三个层面刻画了全球苜蓿草贸易格局的动态演变,并探讨了这种演变对中国苜蓿草进口多元化的启示。研究结果表明:全球苜蓿草贸易较为分散,呈现出明显的组团趋势,核心贸易国比较固定,主要出口国的中介中心度下降、中心性上升。增加中国苜蓿草进口贸易的多元化水平,一方面可以扩大与西班牙、加拿大、意大利、阿根廷和罗马尼亚等国家的现有贸易规模,另一方面可以开拓与法国、澳大利亚、德国、荷兰、波兰、埃及、智利、奥地利、匈牙利和新西兰等潜在合作国家的贸易市场。总体上,今后一段时期中国扩大苜蓿草进口是可行的,但在扩大进口规模的同时应高度关注和管控进口贸易风险。

With the rapid development of dairy and animal husbandry, China’s imports of alfalfa have increased significantly, but the sources of imports are still highly concentrated. Against the background of global spread of COVID-19, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the increased risk of global supply chain disruption, it is undoubtedly important to improve the import sources diversification to stabilize China’s alfalfa supply and promote the development of related industries. Using complex network analysis, this paper constructs a global alfalfa trade network based on the global alfalfa trade data from 1996 to 2020, portrays the dynamic evolution of the global alfalfa trade pattern at overall, regional and national levels.It is believed that China should continue to expend the scale of alfalfa import and pay high attention to the risk. The results show that: the global alfalfa trade is fragmented and has an obvious grouping trend, the core trading countries are relatively fixed, the intermediation degree of major exporting countries decreases and the centrality degree increases. Increasing the diversification level of China’s alfalfa import trade can, on the one hand, expand the existing trade scale with Spain, Canada, Italy, Argentina, Romania, and on the other hand, develop the trade markets with potential cooperative countries such as France, Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Egypt, Chile, Austria, Hungary and New Zealand. This reveals us that it is feasible to expand alfalfa import in the coming period, and the import trade risk should be highly concerned and control at the same time.