“过劳贫困”会降低流动人口的定居意愿吗?——基于流动人口动态监测调查数据的研究

Does“Overwork Poverty”Reduce Migrants’ Willingness to Settle Down?A Research Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey Data

本文基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据研究发现,相比城镇人口,流动人口普遍面临长期在低收入下过度劳动即“过劳贫困”问题。本文使用Logit模型研究“过劳贫困”对流动人口定居决策的影响,发现“过劳贫困”显著地降低了流动人口的定居意愿,具有挤出效应,且流动人口所在城市规模越小、职业越不稳定或人口流动范围越广,挤出效应越强。上述结果在进行分年度回归、替换被解释变量、内生性检验以及Bootstrap检验后仍然稳健。本文进一步运用KHB中介效应分析法,发现“过劳贫困”对流动人口定居意愿的直接效应占据主导地位,同时通过降低流动人口的社会融入度和组织参与度,以及损伤健康状况,间接影响其定居意愿。

Based on data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS), this paper shows that compared with urban residents, migrant workers generally suffer from prolonged low-income and overwork, namely “overwork poverty”. Using a Logit model to examine the effect of “overwork poverty” on migrants’ willingness to settle down, this paper finds that “overwork poverty” has a significant crowding-out effect to reduce migrants’ willingness to settle down. High crowding-out effect is related to small size of host cities, less stable occupations, and long distance of migration. Further analysis with KHB mediation test shows that the direct effect of “overwork poverty” dominantly affects migrants’ willingness to settle down, and the indirect effect play a part by reducing migrants’ social integration and organizational participation, as well as damaging their health status.