基于Logit模型的居民地震保险购买意愿和行为的背离分析

Deviation Analysis on Willingness and Behavior of Residents’Earthquake Insurance Purchasing——Based on Logit Model

为真实了解和深入研究居民地震保险购买意愿与行为的背离现象及其形成机制,以全国不同省份居民作为研究对象,开展专项问卷调查,并采用Logit模型进行回归分析,提出提升居民购买地震保险意愿并付诸行动的相关建议。研究结果表明,居民对地震断裂带的判断属于地震风险感知变量,对投保意愿和购买行为均产生显著的正向影响;是否购买其他保险和是否通过网络捐款属于普通风险感知变量,对投保意愿产生显著的正向影响,对购买行为产生正向影响但不显著;地震风险感知变量既可增强居民的投保意愿,又可促使居民付诸实际购买行动;普通风险感知变量虽能增强居民的投保意愿,但对购买行为无效力,使投保意愿和购买行为表现出一定程度的背离。

In order to understand and study the deviation of residents’willingness and behavior to purchase earthquake insurance and its formation mechanism,a special questionnaire survey was conducted with residents of different provinces across China as the research target,and a regression analysis was conducted using a Logit model to propose recommendations to improve residents’willingness to purchase earthquake insurance and put them into action.The results of the study show that residents’judgment of earthquake rupture zones is an earthquake risk perception variable,which has a significant positive impact on both willingness to insure and purchase behavior;whether or not to purchase other insurance and whether or not to donate through the Internet are general risk perception variables,which have a significant positive impact on willingness to insure and a positive but insignificant impact on purchase behavior;earthquake risk perception variables can both enhance residents’willingness to insure and prompt them to take actual purchase action;general risk perception variables can enhance residents’willingness to insure but have no effect on purchase behavior,causing a certain degree of divergence between willingness to insure and purchase behavior.