空间聚类下贵州省近60年水热周期变化规律

Hydro-thermal Periodical Law in Recent 60 Years Based on the Spatial Clustering in Guizhou Province

为了进一步明晰贵州省全域长序列水热变化规律,服务贵州省生态文明示范区建设和水资源开发利用,本研究利用贵州省31个国家标准站1961-2019年降雨、气温与蒸发实测数据,分析了贵州省近60 a水热条件分布状况。研究对贵州省全域按水热分布特征进行空间聚类,将贵州省按水热条件划分为三类区域,应用Mann-Kendall检验趋势分析法、Pettitt突变检验法分析了降雨、气温、干燥度的趋势变化,并对突变点进行检验,进一步借助小波分析法对贵州省降雨、气温、干燥度变化是否存在周期性规律进行验证,最终综合判断贵州省全省以及三类区域各自的水热分布特征与周期性规律。结果表明:①近60 a,贵州省气温存在显著的趋势突变、降雨没有明显趋势。两者均呈周期性变化规律,且三个区域差异显著;②降雨存在显著的3个周期规律复合,主周期长度分别为22 a、18 a,其中中温高水和高温中水区还存在18 a周期,而气温仅有两个不显著的周期性规律,周期长度为18 a与15 a,降雨和气温的周期性规律分别在1975年和1985年左右开始减弱,在近十年内有所增强;③贵州省干燥度存在略微下降趋势,突变不显著;④低温低水区水热呈略微增加趋势,高温中水区水热显著上升,中温高水区升温少雨,未来高温中水区水资源赋存可能增加,相对低温低水、中温高水区开发利用条件更有利。

To clarify the long-term hydro-thermal law in Guizhou Province,as well as to serve the construction of demonstration zones for ecological progress in this area,and to serve water resources development and utilization in Guizhou Province,this paper takes research on the hydro-thermal change law in this area in the last 60 years,by using the in-situ data from 31 national standard stations of the last 60 years.The spatial clustering method is applied to classify the whole area into 3 regions based on their hydro-thermal conditions.Mann-Kendall Test,Pettitt Abrupt Test are applied to analyze the trend of the precipitation,temperature and dryness and to check the abrupt points further.Also the Morlet Wavelet Analysis is applied to prove that there is periodical laws in Guizhou Province.Finally,the long-term distribution characteristics and evolvement trend of the hydro-thermal conditions can be concluded in Guizhou Province and the three regions.Results show:①there are abrupt points in temperature while no apparent trends in rainfall.Both of them show specific law of the three areas,which differs from each other.②There are three remarkable periodical laws composited in precipitation,with a length of 22 years and 18 years.In addition,there is a third periodical law in medium-temperature and high–rainfall zone and high-temperature and medium-rainfall zone.While only two inconspicuous periodical laws in temperature with length of 18 years and 15 years.These periodical laws weakened around 1975 and 1985,separately for precipitation and temperature.③Dryness of Guizhou Province showed a slight decrease trend with unapparent abrupt points.④Temperature and rainfall in low-temperature and low-rainfall zone rose a bit,while those of high-temperature and medium-rainfall zone rose significantly.Medium-temperature and high–rainfall zone showed a rise in temperature and a fall in rainfall.The high-temperature and medium-rainfall zone can have more water resources in the future,with better utilization conditions compared to the low-temperature and low-rainfall zone and the medium-temperature and high-rainfall zone.