基于预后验分析的边坡稳定监测风险决策方法

Risk Decision-making Method of Slope Stability Monitoring Based on Pre-posterior Analysis

岩土工程风险决策能够定量地考虑不确定性,被广泛应用于工程实践。建立了基于预后验分析的边坡稳定监测方案风险决策模型,提出了预后验分析中监测方案信息价值的高效计算方法,提高了基于信息价值理论的边坡稳定监测方案风险决策方法的实用性。采用一个岩质边坡稳定监测案例证明了所提方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明所提方法能够有效地识别最大信息价值对应的最优监测方案,从信息价值的角度为边坡稳定监测方案优化提供了新思路。

Geotechnical engineering risk decision-making can quantitatively consider uncertainty and is widely used in engineering practice.A risk-based decision-making model and method are proposed for slope monitoring design based on the pre-posterior analysis. To address the computational difficulties in evaluating the value of information(VoI) for pre-posterior analysis, an efficient calculation method is proposed in this thesis, which improves the practicability and applicability of risk-based decision-making method for slope monitoring design based on the VoI theory. The proposed method is illustrated by a rock slope monitoring example. Results show that the pre-posterior analysis effectively identifies the optimal monitoring plan, and hence provides a useful tool to facilitate slope monitoring design.