基于易安检的民航涉恐防暴序贯博弈模型

Civil Aviation Anti-terrorism Sequential Game Model Based on Easy Security Check

安检的通行速度与安检安全性是民航机场始终面临的两难困境,实行易安检模式能显著提高安检通行速度,但简易的安检流程也引起了行业内部分专家学者对其拦截抵御涉恐袭击能力的质疑。研究发现,易安检通道的安检成本与易安检通道的抽检率正相关;当金属探测设备的准确率高于某一阈值时,安检成本与暴恐分子通过人身携带暴恐工具的概率正相关;当易安检通道的暴恐分子过检率低于某一阈值时,暴恐分子会选择不过检袭击;民航安检部门还应加强对违禁品管控、安全乘机、文明排队等方面的宣传,以进一步降低暴恐袭击造成的损失。

The speed and safety of security check is always a dilemma faced by civil aviation airports.The implementation of easy security check mode can significantly improve the speed of security check,but its simple security check process has also caused some experts and scholars in the industry to question its ability to intercept and resist terrorist attacks.The study shows that the security cost of easy security channels is positively correlated with the sampling rate of easy security channels.When the accuracy of metal detection equipment is higher than a certain threshold,the cost of security check is positively correlated with the probability of violent terrorists carrying violent terrorist tools.When the detection rate of violent terrorists in easy security channels is lower than a certain threshold,violent terrorists will choose the attack without detection.Civil aviation security inspection authorities should also strengthen the publicity of contraband control,safe boarding and civilized queuing,so as to further reduce the losses caused by violent and terrorist attacks.