基于ICD模式下地震灾害现场急救力量的需求决策研究

The study on the emergency rescue force demand decision-making in earthquake disasters based on ICD mode

目的 通过构建地震灾害救援过程中现场急救力量的需求决策模型,旨在实现灾害救援工作中医疗资源优化的决策,从而为救援预案快速形成提供参考依据。方法 收集与整理地震案例中的毁伤信息,建立多层感知器(multi-layer perceptron, MLP)神经网络算法的地震灾害伤亡预测模型,再利用多服务台排队论完成现场急救力量的需求决策论证;实现“信息-伤亡-决策(information-casualties-decision, ICD)”的分布式建模过程。结果 信息获取方面,共纳入72项震例数据,以里氏震级、预报情况、震中烈度等8个毁伤信息作为ICD建模的信息基础;伤亡数量方面,建立的预测模型拟合优度为r=0.840(受伤人数)和r=0.990(死亡人数);需求决策方面,动态规划了院前急救、检伤分类和紧急手术等8个急救模块在灾害救援初期(第1个月)的量化部署需求。结论 基于ICD模式构建的需求决策模型,实现了灾害毁伤信息向现场急救资源的需求转化过程,为地震灾害救援预案的高效制定提供了创新性的方法学思路。

Objective To realize the decision-making of medical resource optimization in disaster rescue work through the construction of the demand decision-making model of on-site first aid forces in the process of earthquake disaster rescue in order to provide the reference basis for the rapid formation of rescue plans. Methods By collecting and sorting out the damage information in the earthquake cases, the earthquake disaster casualty prediction model of the multi-layer perceptron(MLP) neural network algorithm was established. Then, the multi-service desk queuing theory was adopted to complete the on-site emergency force demand decision-making demonstration;and the distributed modeling process of "information-casualties-decision(ICD)" was realized. Results The inclusion of a total of 72 earthquake case data was completed in the aspect of information acquisition, in which 8 damage information such as Richter magnitude, forecast situation, seismic intensity and so on were used as the information basis for ICD modeling. The goodness of fit of the established prediction model was r=0.840(the number of injuries) and r=0.990(the number of deaths) in the aspect of the number of casualties. The quantitative deployment requirements of 8 first-aid modules including pre-hospital first aid, triage, emergency surgery and so no at the initial stage of disaster relief(the first month) were dynamically planned in the aspect of demand decision-making. Conclusions The transformation process of disaster damage information to the demand for on-site emergency resources is realized by the demand decision model based on the ICD model. In addition, an innovative methodological idea for the efficient formulation of earthquake disaster rescue plans is also provided.