热带气旋风场动力释用技术的检验与评估

Test and Evaluation of Dynamic Interpretation Technology for Tropical Cyclone Wind Field

我国是受热带气旋,尤其是登陆热带气旋影响最为严重的国家之一,热带气旋造成的大风是主要的气象致灾因子和业务预报的主要对象,而目前数值预报是热带气旋风场预报的重要客观参考产品。当数值预报的热带气旋路径与强度等较主观预报出现较大偏差时,需要对数值模式预报的风场及时做出修正,而业务中对风场数值预报产品缺乏合理有效的修正手段,使得风场数值预报产品的可用性显著降低。本文采用“热带气旋风场动力释用技术”建立了台风精细化大风客观预报系统,并开展了主、客观的台风个例风场检验以及2020年的台风风场检验。检验评估表明:基于“热带气旋风场动力释用技术”的台风精细化大风客观预报系统对热带气旋风场数值预报产品表现出良好的释用效果,提高了预报员对相关数值预报产品的理解和应用水平,提升了风场预报的精细化程度,为气象预报和决策服务提供了重要参考和依据。

China is one of the countries that are most seriously affected by tropical cyclones,especially landfall tropical cyclones.The high winds caused by tropical cyclones are the main meteorological disaster-causing factors and the main object of operational forecasting,and the current numerical forecast is an important objective reference product for tropical cyclone wind field forecasting.When the path and intensity of the tropical cyclones forecasted by the numerical model deviate significantly from the subjective forecast,the wind field forecasted by the numerical model needs to be corrected in time.However,due to the lack of reasonable and effective correction means for the operational numerical wind field forecast products,the usability of the products has been reduced significantly.In this paper,the“dynamic interpretation technology for tropical cyclone wind field”is adopted in the establishment of an objective forecast system for the refined forecast of TC wind,and the objective and subjective typhoon wind field tests are carried out,as well as the typhoon wind field tests for 2020.The test and evaluation show that the refined objective typhoon forecast system based on the“dynamic interpretation technology for tropical cyclone wind field”has exhibited good interpretation of the tropical cyclone wind field numerical forecast products.The system has also improved the forecasters’understanding and application level of the relevant numerical forecast products and therefore has enhanced the refinement degree of wind field forecast.It can provide important reference and basis for meteorological forecast and decisionmaking services.