深圳突发强对流天气应对机制实例分析

Case Analysis of the Response Mechanism to Abrupt Severe Convective Weather in Shenzhen

强对流天气突发性、局地性强,持续时间短,预报难度大,灾害性极大。当前短临预报技术对雷雨大风、短时强降水等突发性强对流天气预报能力有限。深圳市气象局基于现有的短临预报技术,同时借助气象现代化建设成果,持续探索突发强对流天气的有效应对机制。本文以深圳市2021年第一次强对流天气过程为案例,探讨突发强对流天气的有效应对防御机制。此次强对流天气过程历时短、雨强大、天气剧烈,精准预报难度大,且正值五一假期,安全防范压力大。深圳市气象局采取“一体化风险研判、三级预警防线、分步精准发布”等措施,有效解决了气象灾害预警信息传递“最后一公里”问题;建立并完善强对流天气协同指挥和快速联防联动两项机制,将气象灾害影响降至最低,全市未发生因暴雨和大风造成的重大灾情及人员伤亡。

Severe convective weather tends to occur suddenly within a local range and its duration is relatively short.Thus,it is difficult to forecast such disastrous event.At present,the existing short-term forecasting technology has limited ability to forecast severe convective weather such as thunderstorms,gales and short-time severe rainfalls.Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau keeps on exploring effective response mechanisms to severe convective weather based on the existing short-term forecasting technology and meteorological modernization achievements.Here we take the first severe convective weather process of Shenzhen in 2021 as a case to discuss the effective response to and defense mechanism of abrupt severe convective weather.This severe convective weather event brought heavy rainfall but lasted for a short period of time,so it was difficult to provide accurate forecast.Moreover,it occurred during May Day Holiday and brought high pressure on safety precautions.Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau took measures such as“integrated risk judgment,three-level pre-warning defense line,and phased accurate release”to effectively solve the“last mile”problem of meteorological disaster warning information transmission.Two mechanisms of coordinated command and prompt joint defense have also been established and improved for minimizing the impact of meteorological disasters.There were no major disasters or casualties caused by heavy rainfall and gales during the severe convective weather process.