基于双参数模型的沥青路面使用性能预测

Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Performance based on Two-parameter Model

基于双参数预测模型,预测不同项目路段的路面使用性能。在各路段历年检测数据的基础上,考虑路面年限、路面结构、交通轴载等因素,采用相关软件拟合出各路段路面性能衰变方程中的α、β参数。在95%置信区间的基础上对α、β参数进行取值范围计算,采用灰色关联度方法建立路面使用性能影响因素与模型参数α、β取值的关联计算式,以进一步提高模型参数取值的准确性。

Being based on the two-parameter prediction model, the pavement service performance of different project sections has been predicted. Being based on the testing data of each road section in the past years, the α and β parameters in the pavement performance decay equation of each road section have been fitted by software considering the age of the pavement, pavement structure, traffic axle load and other factors. Then, the range of values of α and β parameters has been calculated on the basis of 95% confidence interval, and the gray correlation analysis method has been used to establish the correlation calculation formula between the influencing factors of pavement performance and the values of α and β parameters of the model, in order to further improve the accuracy of the values of the model parameters.