基于主成分回归模型分析贵州省毕节市饮用水化学性质与氟斑牙流行程度的关系

Relationship between the chemical properties of drinking water and the prevalence of dental fluorosis based on the principal component regression model in Bijie City,Guizhou Province

目的探讨贵州省毕节市原有地表饮用水源中相关化学元素与氟斑牙流行程度的关系,为进一步探索氟斑牙患病人群的分布规律、明确地方性氟中毒发生的作用机制以及科学调整相关防治政策提供科学依据。方法2021年8月至2022年3月,基于贵州省地方性氟中毒普查资料,在贵州省毕节市214个乡(镇)中,现场采集385份原有地表饮用水源水样,测定pH值,以及水中氟(F)、钙(Ca)、镁(Mg)、铝(Al)、钛(Ti)、锰(Mn)、铜(Cu)、锌(Zn)、镍(Ni)、砷(As)、钼(Mo)、镉(Cd)、钡(Ba)、铅(Pb)、铬(Cr)、铁(Fe)、硒(Se)的含量;以代表氟斑牙流行程度的氟斑牙指数为因变量,基于以上饮用水化学性质构建主成分多元回归模型,探讨影响氟斑牙流行程度的相关因素,并计算其贡献率。结果毕节市214个乡(镇)的氟斑牙指数中位数为1.460,385份饮用水水样的pH值,F、Ca、Mg、Al、Ti、Cr、Mn、Fe、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Se、Mo、Cd、Ba、Pb含量均值分别为6.369,0.209、179.706、16.198、0.163、0.987、0.015、0.073、0.176、0.027、0.014、0.191、0.007、0.005、0.003、0.001、0.155、0.005 mg/L。主成分分析法提取6个主成分(F1~F6),累积贡献率为72.05%;多元线性回归分析结果显示,饮用水中与氟斑牙流行程度呈正相关性的化学元素依次为Se、Fe、Cr、Mn、Ni、Cd、Cu,呈负相关性的化学元素依次为Ba、F、Ti、Mo、Zn、Al、Pb、Ca、As、Mg。结论毕节市地方性氟中毒病区饮用水化学性质对该地区氟斑牙的发生与流行程度具有明显的协同或拮抗效应;且饮用水中F对当地氟斑牙的发生与流行程度可能不具有决定性的作用。

bjective To study the relationship between the relevant chemical elements in the original surface drinking water sources and the prevalence of dental fluorosis in Bijie City,Guizhou Province,and to provide a scientific basis for further studying the distribution of dental fluorosis patients,clarifying the mechanism of endemic fluorosis,and scientifically adjusting relevant prevention and treatment policies.Methods From August 2021 to March 2022,based on the local census data of endemic fluorosis in Guizhou Province,385 samples of original surface drinking water sources were collected in 214 townships(towns)of Bijie City.The pH value,and contents of fluorine(F),calcium(Ca),magnesium(Mg),aluminum(Al),titanium(Ti),manganese(Mn),copper(Cu),zinc(Zn),nickel(Ni),arsenic(As),molybdenum(Mo),cadmium(Cd),barium(Ba),lead(Pb),chromium(Cr),iron(Fe),and selenium(Se)in the drinking water were determined.Taking the dental fluorosis index representing the prevalence of dental fluorosis as the dependent variable,a principal component multiple regression model was constructed based on the above chemical elements of drinking water to study the related factors affecting the prevalence of dental fluorosis,and its contribution rate was calculated.Results The median of dental fluorosis index in 214 townships(towns)of Bijie City was 1.460.The average of pH values and contents of F,Ca,Mg,Al,Ti,Cr,Mn,Fe,Ni,Cu,Zn,As,Se,Mo,Cd,Ba and Pb of 385 drinking water samples were 6.369,and 0.209,179.706,16.198,0.163,0.987,0.015,0.073,0.176,0.027,0.014,0.191,0.007,0.005,0.003,0.001,0.155,0.005 mg/L,respectively.Six principal components(F,-Fo)were extracted by principal component regression analysis,and the cumulative contribution rate was 72.05%.After multiple linear regression analysis,the chemical elements in drinking water were positively correlated with the prevalence of dental fluorosis in the order of Se,Fe,Cr,Mn,Ni,Cd and Cu,and negatively correlated with the prevalence of dental fluorosis in the order of Ba,F,Ti,Mo,Zn,Al,Pb,Ca,As and Mg.ConclusionsThe chemical properties in drinking water of endemic fluorosis areas in Bijie City have obvious synergistic or antagonistic effects on the occurrence and prevalence of dental fluorosis in this area.The F in the drinking water may not play a decisive role in the occurrence and prevalence of local dental fluorosis.