近70年珠江水沙变化特征及人类活动影响因素分析

Characteristics of runoff and sediment discharge in the Pearl River Basin in recent 70 years and analysis on the affecting factors of human activities

收集1954—2019年珠江流域的3个主要水文站:高要站(西江)、石角站(北江)和博罗站(东江)的径流量与输沙量资料,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和累积距平法,分析了珠江流域水沙近70年来的年际变化特征。结果表明,1954—2019年珠江年径流量变化趋势不明显,年输沙量呈下降趋势,高要站与博罗站年输沙量分别于2003年和1991年发生突变,多年平均输沙量较突变前分别减少了71.30%和48.88%,石角站未发生明显突变。2000—2019年珠江流域归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI)整体呈上升趋势,植被覆盖改善区域占流域总面积的89.27%,但NDVI与水沙变化的相关性不显著。运用双累积曲线法对不同时期人类活动对珠江输沙量的影响进行分析,20世纪80年代以来,森林砍伐、水库建设、水土保持等人类活动对输沙量造成显著影响,2000年以后龙滩水库建设是西江输沙量下降的主要原因,植被改善对于珠江流域输沙量的影响不明显。

The variation characteristics of water and sediment in the Pearl River Basin over the past about 70 years were analyzed by using the runoff and sediment discharge data at three major hydrological stations in the Pearl River Basin, Gaoyao Station(Xijiang River), Shijiao Station(Beijiang River) and Boluo Station(Dongjiang River) from 1954 to 2019, and applying the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and accumulative anomaly curves. The results showed that the change of the runoff in the Pearl River from 1954 to 2019 was not obvious while the sediment discharge was decrease, among which the sediment discharge at Gaoyao and Boluo Stations changed abruptly in 2003 and 1991, decreasing by 71.3% and 48.88%, respectively, compared with before the abrupt change, while the sediment discharge at Shijiao Station did not change abruptly. On this basis, the change of vegetation cover in the basin and its relationship with the change of water and sediment were studied by using the precipitation data and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) in the basin from 2000 to 2019. The NDVI in the Pearl River Basin showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2019, and the improvement area of vegetations cover accounted for 89.27% of the total basin area. Among which NDVI in the Pearl River Basin was poorly correlated with sediment discharge from 2000 to 2008, NDVI in the Xijiang River Basin and Dongjiang River Basin were positively correlated with precipitation in the basin but not with sediment discharge form 2009 to 2019, and only in the Beijiang River Basin, NDVI was insignificantly negatively correlated with sediment discharge. The influence of human activities on sediment discharge in the Pearl River at different periods was discussed using the double cumulative curve method. Since the 1980s, human activities such as deforestation, reservoir construction, and soil and water conservation had a significant impact on sediment discharge. After 2000, the construction of Longtan Reservoir was the main reason for the decline of sediment discharge in the Xijiang River, but the improvement of vegetation coverage had no significant impact on the sediment discharge in the Pearl River Basin.