农业现代化发展水平时空特征:分异性与集聚性——基于山东省2010—2019年数据分析

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION DEVELOPMENT LEVEL:DIFFERENTIATION AND AGGLOMERATION——BASED ON DATA ANALYSIS OF SHANDONG PROVINCE FROM 2010 TO 2019

[目的]探索农业现代化发展水平时空特征以利于加快推进农业现代化进程,全面推进乡村振兴。[方法]文章构建包含农业物质装备、科技信息、产业建设、经营管理建设、绿色发展、产出效益和农村现代化七方面的指标体系,运用TOPSIS-ESDA方法,基于2010—2019年山东省数据,研究农业现代化发展水平的时空特征。[结果](1)时间维度上,农业现代化发展水平指数高值地区波动性较大,低值地区则陷入“低水平陷阱”;(2)空间层面上,呈现从高值向低值地区梯次转移,低值地区长期处于锁定状态;(3)时空角度上,整体呈现显著的同类集聚,但高值和低值接壤区域存在“空心”和“极化”现象。[结论]可以在高值地区发展资金和技术集约化、信息化、知识化农业;低值地区继续完善基础设施建设,根据因地制宜原则提高农业现代化发展水平;同时,增强区域间交流合作,积极培育低值集聚区域增长极。

To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of agricultural modernization development level is toaccelerate the process of agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization in an all-round way.This paperconstructed an index system including agricultural material equipment,science and technology informatization,agricultural industry construction,operation and management construction,green development,output benefit andrural modernization,and based on the data of Shandong province in 2010-2019,and assigned objective weight byusing the entropy method,then calculated the score of agricultural modernization development level by adoptingTOPSIS method,and finally studied the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural modernizationdevelopment level with the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)method.Three conclusions were drawn basedon the above methods.Firstly,in terms of time dimension,the high-level of agricultural modernization developmentareas had high volatility,and low-level areas fell into"low level trap".Secondly,on the spatial dimension,it showeda hierarchical transfer from high-level to low-level area,and the low-level areas were locked for a long time;Finally,in terms of space-time perspective,the whole area was similar to the same kind,but the areas of the highand low-level′s border had"hollow"and"polarization"phenomena.Therefore,we should develop information andknowledge-based agriculture in high-level areas,and improve the infrastructure construction in low-level areasand develop the level of agricultural modernization according to the principle of local conditions;Meanwhile,we should strengthen regional communication and cooperation between high and low-level areas,and actively cultivatethe growth pole of low-level agglomeration regions.