成渝地区双城经济圈人口流动与经济增长的空间关系研究

Research on the Spatial Correlations Between Population Mobility and Economic Growth in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

文章基于相关统计年鉴数据,利用空间模型对成渝地区双城经济圈内16市人口流动与经济增长相关指标进行空间计量分析,使用空间滞后模型(SAR)、空间误差模型(SEM)和空间杜宾模型(SDM)进行测算分析和相关检验。并且运用空间计量方法构建二元邻接空间权重矩阵,对人口流动、工资变化与经济增长之间的关系进行了对比分析。文章采用Moran's I(莫兰指数)对经济增长变量进行空间自相关检验,计算2013—2019年成渝地区双城经济圈16个城市的经济增长空间依赖性,结果表明:成渝地区双城经济圈内16个城市的经济增长存在正向的空间自相关性,并呈现出明显的空间集聚特征。通过空间模型分析发现,人口流动率(m)与经济增长(lny)的回归系数显著为负,表明人口的空间流动并未明显地促进地区经济增长,反而起到了抑制作用。基于此,提出了进一步加大人才培养力度、优化营商环境、建立健全工资收入制度等对策建议。

Drawing on the relevant statistical yearbook data,this paper employs the spatial model to conduct an analysis on the relevant indicators of population mobility and economic growth in the 16 cities within the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,and uses the spatial lagged model(SLM),spatial error model(SEM)and the spatial Dubin model(SDM)for analysis and testing.And a binary adjacency spatial weight matrix is constructed using spatial econometric methods to explore the correlations between population mobility,wage and economic growth.Finally,this paper uses Moran’s Index to test the spatial auto-correlation of economic growth variables,and calculates the spatial dependence of economic growth in these 16 cities from 2013 to 2019.The results suggest that there is a positive spatial auto-correlation and significant spatial agglomeration in the 16 cities.The spatial model analysis reveals that the regression coefficient between population mobility rate(m)and economic growth(lny)is significantly negative,indicating that the mobility of population does not contribute to regional economic growth,but plays a restraining role.To this end,the paper puts forward some suggestions to further strengthen talent training,optimize business environment and establish a sound wage system.