城市道路预约出行策略下的出行方式选择

Research on travel mode choice under travel reservation strategy in urban road

基于预约出行的运行机制,应用累积前景理论,分析实施预约出行策略后出行者在不确定环境下的出行方式选择,在此基础上,从个体效用和社会福利两个层面探讨预约出行策略的可行性.研究结果表明:在个人效用方面,预约出行策略能通过系统时空调节弱化个体随机性的影响,显著提高出行者的出行效益,提高公共交通出行率,且早高峰时段比晚高峰时段的实行效果更优;在社会福利方面,该政策带来的社会总福利比拥堵收费策略更高.因此,与传统交通管控策略相比,预约出行政策更加灵活精细,在缓解交通拥堵方面拥有更大的潜力.

Based on the operational mechanism of the travel reservation strategy,the cumulative prospect theory is applied to analyze the travel mode choice of travelers under uncertain environment after the implementation of the strategy.It discusses the feasibility from two aspects:individual utility and social welfare.The research results show that:in terms of individual utility,the travel reservation strategy can weaken the influence of individual randomness through the system spatial-temporal adjustment,significantly improve the travel efficiency of travelers,and increase the travel rate in public transportation,and the implementation effect is better in the morning peak hours than the evening peak hours.In terms of social welfare,the total social welfare brought by the strategy is higher than that of the congestion charging strategy.Therefore,compared with the traditional traffic control strategy,the travel reservation strategy is more flexible and refined,and has a greater potential to alleviate traffic congestion.