中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的经济效应研究

Research on the Economic Effects of China’s OFDI in Countries along"the Belt and Road"

该文分析中国对外直接投资对东道国及其周边国家经济发展的影响,通过动态空间杜宾模型实证检验中国对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的长短期贡献及其直接与间接外溢效应。研究表明,“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长具有空间联动性,并且具有一定程度的路径依赖特征,同时中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资对沿线国家经济发展的影响主要体现在空间溢出方面,即周边地区吸引的中国投资越高,该地区经济增长受到的促进作用越显著,并且这种刺激作用具有长期效应。

This paper analyzes the impact of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)on the economic development of the host country and its neighboring countries.It empirically tests the long-term and short-term contribution to the economic growth of countries along"the Belt and Road"and its direct and indirect spillover effects through the dynamic spatial Durbin model.The results show that the economic growth of countries along"the Belt and Road"has spatial linkage and a certain degree of path dependence.At the same time,the impact of China’s OFDI on the economic development of countries along"the Belt and Road"is mainly reflected in spatial spillover,that is,the higher the Chinese investment attracted by the surrounding areas,the more obvious the promotion effect of local economic growth,and this stimulating effect has a long-term effect.