基于动态SEIR模型的传染性疾病预测和政策评估

Prediction and policy assessment of infectious diseases transmission using dynamic SEIR model

突发传染病防控问题是近年来引起社会广泛关注的焦点话题,突发传染病不仅会对人们生命健康造成巨大威胁,还会对经济发展、社会稳定造成严重影响,实现突发传染病的及时预警、实时监控和合理预测对传染病防控有着非常重要的现实意义.本文在传播动力学SEIR(Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed)模型的基础上,提出动态SEIR(dynamic SEIR)模型来研究突发传染病的传播趋势.该模型不仅可以考虑人口流动对疾病传播的影响,而且可以根据防控干预措施对模型参数进行动态估计,更符合传染病的病毒传播特点,有更好的预测效果.最后,本文提供相应的R软件包dSEIR供研究者使用.

The prevention of sudden infectious diseases is a focus issue that has attracted extensive attention in recent years.The sudden infectious diseases not only pose a huge threat to people’s lives and health,but also bring a serious impact on economic development and social stability.It is of great practical significance to achieve timely early warning,real-time monitoring and reasonable prediction of sudden infectious diseases for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.In this study,a dynamic SEIR model based on the Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed(SEIR)model is proposed to study the spread trend of infectious diseases.The model can not only consider the impact of population movement on diseases transmission,but also dynamically estimate model parameters based on control interventions,which is more consistent with the epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases and has better predictive performance.Finally,the corresponding R software package dSEIR is provided for researchers to use.