生态文明先行示范区建设如何助力实现“双碳”目标?——基于合成控制法的实证研究

How does the Construction of the Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Help Achieve“Dual Carbon”Goal?——An Empirical Study Based on Synthetic Control Method

实现碳达峰碳中和是贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的内在要求,是建设人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化的应有之义。探究典型区域“双碳”目标的实现机理和内在规律,对推动我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型具有重要启示意义。本文运用合成控制法与中介效应模型评估了中国生态文明先行示范区建设的碳减排效应。研究发现:在考察期内,生态文明先行示范区的碳减排成效总体优于全国其他地区,示范区建设对实现“双碳”目标具有重要引领作用;生态文明先行示范区建设的碳减排效应具有区域异质性,福建、贵州和云南的碳减排成效较为突出,江西的碳减排成效尚不明显;环境规制、结构优化、生态碳汇等因素在示范区碳减排过程中发挥着链式中介效应,其中生态碳汇的中介效应较为突出。尽管示范区建设未诱发明显的技术创新中介效应,但是,技术创新在抑制示范区碳排放过程中发挥着直接显著的作用。为此,深入推进我国生态文明建设,需要建立以“双碳”为目标导向的生态系统治理多元规制体系,优化产业结构和能源结构推动生产方式绿色低碳转型,加强零碳负碳技术创新促进区域生态系统碳平衡。

To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an inherent requirement for implementing the new development concept,building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development.“Dual carbon”goal is also an essential part of Chinese modernization featuring harmonious coexistence between man and nature.Therefore,exploring the realization mechanism and internal laws of“dual carbon”target in typical region presents important implications for promoting comprehensive green transformation of China’s economic and social development.In this paper,the carbon emission reduction effect of ecological civilization pilot demonstration zone is evaluated by using synthetic control method and intermediary effect model.The results show that the carbon emission reduction effect of the demonstration zone is generally better than that of other regions in the country and the construction of the demonstration area plays a leading role in realizing the“dual carbon”target.The carbon emission reduction effect of the demonstration zone construction has regional heterogeneity.The effect is more prominent in Fujian,Guizhou and Yunnan provinces,but not obvious in Jiangxi province.Environmental regulation,structural optimization and ecological carbon sink play a chain intermediary effect in the process of carbon emission reduction in the demonstration zone,and the intermediary effect of ecological carbon sink is more prominent.Although the construction of demonstration zone does not induce obvious technological innovation effect,technological innovation plays a direct and significant role in the process of curbing carbon emissions.To further promote the construction of ecological civilization,it is necessary to establish a multi-regulation system for ecosystem governance,optimize industrial and energy structure to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of production methods,strengthen the innovation of zero-carbon and negative-carbon technologies to promote regional ecological system carbon balance.