基于情感卷积与信息对称的突发公共事件谣言向度反转及弥合路径研究

Research on Rumor Dimension Reversal and Bridging Path of Emergent Public Incidents Based on Emotional Convolution and Information Symmetry

[研究目的]为了探索突发公共事件谣言中信息对称、情感卷积与向度反转之间动态影响机制,以便有效地对突发公共事件谣言进行监控及治理。[研究方法]使用2015—2020年我国具有代表性的11起突发事件面板大数据,采用向量自回归、状态空间模型及线性规划对信息对称、情感卷积及向度反转之间关系及监管的弥合路径进行分析。[研究结论]研究发现:信息对称对向度反转产生负向脉冲扰动,情感卷积对向度反转产生正向脉冲扰动,信息对称及情感卷积的冲击效应均较大,且向度反转对两变量的脉冲响应均具有断尾效应;信息对称与情感卷积对向度反转的边际影响力均较大,且信息对称的边际影响大于情感卷积的边际影响;信息对称的弥合路径呈偏右的倒U型分布特征,情感卷积的弥合路径呈J型分布特征。根据研究结论,可制定有针对性的突发公共事件谣言信息对称、情感卷积及向度反转的监管措施及防控策略。

[Reaearch purpose]In order to seek for the endogenous influence of information symmetry and emotion convolution on adverse cascade in emergency public events, and classify and grade differently characterized rumor information in the network, monitor and govern them.[Research method]The paper uses China’s emergency events panel data from 2015 to 2020, and uses VAR model, linear programming, and state space model to analyze the relationship between adverse cascade, information symmetry and emotion convolution. [Research conclusion]The research finds that : Information symmetry produces negative impulse disturbance on the adverse cascade, and emotion convolution produces positive impulse disturbance on the adverse cascade. Both information symmetry and emotion convolution have greater impact effects, and the adverse cascade has impulses for two variables. The responses all have a tail-truncated effect. Information symmetry and emotion convolution have greater marginal influence on the adverse cascade, and the marginal influence of information symmetry is greater than that of emotion convolution. The optimized path with symmetry information has an inverted U-shaped distribution feature with tendency to the right, and the optimized path of emotion convolution has a J-shaped distribution feature. According to the research conclusions, it is possible to formulate targeted regulatory measures and prevention and control strategies for information symmetry, emotional convolution and directional reversal of rumors in public emergencies.