摘要
自2015年人民币加入特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子后,人民币汇率弹性继续增大。文章通过建立2016年至2022年贸易行业指数、汇率变动及港口航运指数之间的VAR模型进行实证分析,结果表明汇率变动与贸易行业收益之间存在相互影响的反相关关系,在此基础上,从科学管理汇率波动、升级贸易行业产业结构、强化企业汇率风险管理等方面提出解决对策,以促进我国贸易行业平稳健康发展。
After the RMB was added to the Special Drawing Rights(SDR)currency basket since 2015,the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has continued to increase.By empirical analyses of establishment of a VAR model between the trade industry index,exchange rate changes and port shipping index from 2016 to 2022,the results show that there is an inverse correlation between exchange rate changes and trade industry earnings in the paper.On this basis,it proposes solutions from the aspects of scientific managing exchange rate fluctuations,up⁃grading the industrial structure of the trade industries,and strengthening the management of enterprise exchange rate risks,so as to promote the stable and healthy development of our country’s trade industries.
作者
蒋永忠
张颖
张键
JIANG Yong-zhong;ZHANG Ying;ZHANG Jian
出处
《安徽职业技术学院学报》
2022年第4期28-32,共5页
Journal of Anhui Vocational & Technical College
基金
2019年安徽高校人文社会科学研究重大项目“‘一带一路’战略背景下安徽制造业全球价值链提升路径研究——基于产业内分工的视角”(SK2019ZD68)
2020年安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目“江浙沪自由贸易试验区制度创新比较研究及对安徽的启示”(SK2020A0864)。
关键词
贸易行业
汇率变动
VAR
trade industry
fluctuation in exchange rate
VAR