气候暖湿化背景下新疆极端气候事件时空演变特征分析

New characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of extreme climate events in Xinjiang under the background of warm and humid climate

基于1982—2020年逐日气象数据,采用趋势分析、相关分析、Hurst指数及相对重要性等方法,分析新疆极端气候事件时空变化特征及规律。结果表明:新疆极端温度指数均表现出暖化趋势,不同极端温度指数呈增温趋势的站点占比为50.98%~100%。冷指数增温高于暖指数,空间上南疆暖化趋势较北疆更加显著。除持续干旱指数CDD外,极端降水指数整体均呈不显著上升趋势,占比为61.76%~85.29%。极端温度频率指数和雨日降水总量及中、小雨日数的增加对新疆暖湿化趋势贡献相对较大。除冰冻日数ID和年均雨日降水强度SDII外,其他极端气候指数变化均可持续,且极端降水的增加和多数极端温度尤其是冷指数暖化趋势在高海拔区域更明显。

Based on the daily meteorological data from 1982 to 2020,the spatial and temporal variability characteristics of extreme climate events in Xinjiang were analyzed using the methods of trend analysis,correlation analysis,Hurst index,and relative importance.The results indicate that the extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang show a warming trend,and the proportion of stations with different extreme temperature indices show a warming trend of 50.98%-100%.The temperature of the cold index was higher than that of the warm index,and the warming trend in southern Xinjiang is more significant than that in northern Xinjiang.Except for the continuous drought index,CDD,the overall extreme precipitation indices showed no significant upward trend,and the proportion of stations with an upward trend was 61.76%-85.29%.The increase in extreme temperature frequency indices,total precipitation,and moderate and light rain days significantly contributed to the warming and humidification trend in Xinjiang.Except for freezing days ID and annual mean rain days precipitation intensity SDII,the changes of other extreme climate indices were sustainable,and the extreme precipitation and warming trend of most extreme temperatures,especially the cold index,were more obvious at high altitudes.