基于心理感知的铁路综合客运枢纽客流疏解预警研究

Study on passenger flow relief early-warning of integrated railway passenger transport hub based on psychological perception

为解决铁路综合客运枢纽客流疏解预警忽略旅客心理感知与焦虑问题,基于状态焦虑问卷,定量描述旅客焦虑状态,通过引入心理测量学中积极率划分客流疏解等级阈值,确定枢纽客流疏解预警等级,构建以旅客感知疏解时间为预警指标的回归预测模型。研究结果表明:模型可定量预测枢纽站各种交通接驳方式客流的感知疏解时间,准确描述枢纽站预警等级,研究结果可为管理人员选择相应疏解措施提供依据。

In order to solve the problem of passengers’psychological perception and anxiety being ignored in the passenger flow relief early-warning of the integrated railway passenger transport hub,the state anxiety inventory was used to quantitatively describe the anxiety state of passengers,and the positive rate in psychometrics was introduced to divide the thresholds of passenger flow relief level.The hub passenger flow relief early-warning levels were determined,and a regression prediction model with the perceived relief time of passengers as the early-warning index was constructed.The results showed that the model could quantitatively predict the perceived relief time of the passenger flow with various transportation connection methods at the hub station,and accurately describe the early-warning level of the hub station.The research results can provide basis for the managers to select the corresponding relief measures.