货币政策时度效:内涵特征、逻辑关联与表征变量

"Time-Degree-Effect"of Monetary Policy:Connotative Features,Logical Correlations and Characteristic Variables

本文首先基于连续性、稳定性等“多性”目标,阐释“时度效”的内涵与特征,并在理清“时“”度”和“效”之间逻辑关联和相依关系的基础上,科学筛选“时度效”表征变量,重点刻画“时度效”表征变量与经济基本面变量的动态走势和波动特征。结果表明:第一“,时度效”内涵极为丰富“,时”“度”和“效”之间虽然存在一定外在“冲突”表象,但多数情形下三者之间呈现“一致”属性。第二,“时“”度”和“效”之间既存在逻辑先导关联,也存在因果相依关系。第三“,时度效”表征变量的动态走势,很好地拟合和预测了货币政策当期松紧状态与未来调控取向,政府应根据经济中长期调控需求和短期目标侧重,兼顾“跨周期”和“逆周期”政策调控效果,完善货币政策框架体系。

Based on the"multiple"goals such as monetary policy’s continuity and stability,this paper comprehensively explains the connotation and characteristics of monetary policy’s"time-degree-effect",and scientifically screens the characteristic variables of monetary policy’s"time-degree-effect"on the basis of clarifying the logical correlation and interdependent relationship among"time","degree"and"effect",focusing on describing the dynamic trend and fluctuation characteristics of the"timedegree-effect"characterization variables and the economic fundamental variables.The research results show that:First,the connotative characteristics of the"time-degree-effect"are extremely rich.Although there are individual external conflict appearances among"time","degree"and"effect",they still show the"consistent"property in most cases.Second,there is not only the logical connection on the transmission path,but also the close causal relationship among"time","degree"and"effect".Third,the dynamic trends of the"time-degree-effect"characteristic variables are good evidence for the current adjustment orientation and the future expectation of monetary policy.The government should improve the monetary policy framework system according to the medium and long-term economic control needs and short-term target focus,taking into account the"cross-cycle"and"counter-cyclical"policy control effects.