应急管理研究的理论模型构建方法

A Theoretical Model-building Approach to Emergency Management Research

目前,案例分析法在应急管理研究中得到广泛运用,因为任何风险灾害危机的发生及对其的应急管理,都有一个演化的过程,其间事件情节曲折多变,影响因素错综复杂,参与主体众多且互动频繁,很适合作为“讲故事”的对象。但对案例分析法固有“软肋”的拷问,即对特殊案例的分析能否推出一般规律,在应急管理研究中表现得尤为明显。突发事件种类繁多,事发环境差异悬殊,应对之策千差万别,应对效果更有天壤之别,似乎很难通过案例分析来寻求一般规律。笔者带领研究团队一直倡导“过程-结构”分析式的应急管理案例研究。使用“过程-结构”分析式案例研究的前提和难点就在于构建理论模型,解析事件发生和应对过程的结构。结合本研究团队的以往工作实践,在此探讨构建理论模型、解析过程结构的方法。

At present, the case study method is widely used in emergency management research because the occurrence of any risk-disaster crisis and its emergency management is an evolutionary process with many twists and turns, complex influencing factors, and numerous and frequent interactions among the participants, making it a suitable object for “storytelling”.However, the inherent weakness of the case study method, namely the question of whether the analysis of particular cases can lead to general laws, is particularly evident in the study of emergency management. There are so many different types of emergencies, so many different circumstances, so many different response strategies, and so many different response effects that it seems difficult to find general patterns through case studies. This is why the research team led by the author has been advocating a “process-structure” approach to emergency management case studies. The prerequisite and difficulty of using the “process-structure” approach is to construct a theoretical model to analyse the structure of the incident and response process. In the light of the team’s previous work, here we discuss the methodology for constructing theoretical models and analysing the structure of the process.