净零碳目标进程的知性悖论与陷阱规避

The Paradox of Understanding and the Avoidance of Trap in the Net Zero Carbon Goal Process

在21世纪中叶实现碳中和即净零碳排放是关乎《巴黎协定》温控目标的重要条件,也是全球应对气候变化的焦点和难点。实现碳中和的根本路径在于化石能源的有序退出和可再生能源的有效、平稳替代。在净零碳转型进程中存在的道义性、安全性和绩效性知性悖论极有可能导致博弈失衡,使人们掉入喧宾夺主、高碳锁定和急功近利的陷阱。中国已经具备了实现碳中和目标的底气,但是转型不可能一步到位,既要把握机遇顺势而为,也要防止误入陷阱,必须保持定力、稳步推进并引领净零碳转轨进程。

Achieving carbon neutrality, i. e. net zero carbon emissions, by the middle of the 21st century is an important condition for the Paris Agreement’s temperature control targets, and is the focus and difficulty of the global response to climate change. The fundamental path to achieving carbon neutrality lies in the orderly withdrawal of fossil energy sources and the effective and smooth replacement of renewable energy sources. However, the moral, safety and performance perception paradoxes in the net-zero carbon transition process may lead to an imbalance in the game, leading to the trap of a noisy, high-carbon lock-in and a rush for success. China is well positioned to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, but the transition cannot be achieved in one step. It is important to seize the opportunity to follow the trend, but also to avoid falling into the trap of the net zero carbon process.