中国西部沿边省份经济趋同的空间马尔可夫链分析——以云南省为例

REGIONAL CONVERGENCE OF WESTERN BORDER PROVINCES IN CHINA WITH SPATIAL MARKOV CHAINS APPROACH——TAKE YUNNAN PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

利用2004-2020年云南省129个县级行政单元的人均GDP数据,使用传统与空间马尔可夫链相结合的统计方法,分析云南省区域经济趋同的时空演化。研究发现:(1)云南省经济发展存在俱乐部趋同现象,已形成低水平、中高水平和高水平3个趋同俱乐部;(2)云南县区经济发展水平类型的空间分布格局呈现“核心—边缘”特征,滇中城市群范围发育水平高、与边缘区域水平差异明显,环核心区域形成水平突变的塌陷带。同时,滇西和滇西南城镇发育程度不足,滇东北发展滞后;(3)空间因素在俱乐部趋同中发挥影响,邻域条件作用显著,加剧了滇中城市群与外围区的差异。

Using the per capita GDP data of 129 counties and districts in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2020,this paper analyzed the characteristics of regional economic convergence in Yunnan Province by using the statistical method combining traditional and spatial Markov chains. The results show that:(1) There is a phenomenon of club convergence in the economic development of Yunnan Province, which has formed three convergence clubs of low level, medium high level and high level;(2) The spatial distribution pattern of economic development level types of counties and districts in Yunnan shows the characteristics of core-periphery model. The urban agglomeration in central Yunnan is well developed, with obvious development differences from the surrounding areas, forming a region with large changes in level around the core region. At the same time, the development of towns in western and southwestern Yunnan is insufficient, and the development of northeast Yunnan lags behind;(3) The spatial factors play an important role and the neighborhood conditions play a significant role, increasing the development gap between the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan and the surrounding areas.