基于模糊集定性比较分析的灾害公共预警效率分析

Efficiency Analysis of Disaster Public Early Warning Based on Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Sets

选取2014—2021年间40个洪涝灾害案例,运用模糊集定性比较分析方法,基于TOE分析框架与现有文献,从技术、组织、环境三个层次总结、归纳出风险监测设施、预报发布接收设施、注意力强度、预案完善程度、组织资源禀赋、公众参与度六个影响灾害公共预警效率的条件变量,实证分析了影响灾害公共预警效率的因素组合。研究发现:①单一条件并不构成灾害公共预警效率的必要条件,但提升预案完善度在灾害公共预警高效率上发挥着较普适的作用;②高效率灾害公共预警生成模式可归纳为两种:注意力主导模式、预案主导模式。

By selecting 40 flood disaster cases from 2014 to 2021,using the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method,and based on the TOE analysis framework and existing literature,six conditional variables that affect the efficiency of public disaster early warning are summarized from the three levels of technology,organization and environment,including risk monitoring facilities,forecast release and reception facilities,attention intensity,plan perfection,organizational resource endowment,and public participation.The combination of factors that affect the efficiency of disaster public early warning is empirically analyzed.The research shews that:①Single condition does not constitute a necessary condition for the efficiency of public disaster early warning,but improving the perfection of the plan plays a more universal role in the efficiency of public disaster early warning;②High efficiency disaster public early warning generation mode can be summarized into two types:attention oriented mode and plan oriented mode.