区域台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力评估

Coping Capacity Assessment of Regional Typhoon-Flood-Geological Disaster Chain

以浙江省苍南县为例,构建防灾能力、抗灾能力和救灾能力一体化的台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力评估指标体系,应用多级模糊综合评估模型定量评估台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力。结果表明,苍南县各乡镇台风-洪涝-地质灾害减灾能力可应对台风等级为10~12级,空间上呈现南北高、中部低的分布特征。评估结果较为准确地识别各乡镇减灾能力的优势和限制因素,其减灾能力差异主要受房屋抗风能力、房屋参保、工程设施抗洪能力等因素影响。区域台风-洪涝-地质灾害链减灾能力应基于减灾资源、灾害危险性提出具有针对性的减灾策略。

Cangnan county in Zhejiang Province is selected for the study area.An indicator system for the assessment of multi-hazards coping capacity is developed according to three dimensions,including reduction ability,resilience ability,and relief ability.The coping capacity of typhoon-flood-geological disaster chain is quantitatively estimated by using the multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation model.The results show that the coping capacity of Cangnan county is prepared to deal with 10-12 intensitygrades of typhoon-flood-geological disaster chain.The coping capacity is higher in the northern and southern of Cangnan,while it is lower in the central.Moreover,the index values of disaster reduction ability,disaster resilience,and disaster relief ability reveal the advantages and limitations of typhoon-flood-geological coping capacity.The variation in the coping capacity among the towns are influenced by anti-wind capability of house,housing insurance,anti-disaster capability of the engineering facilities,etc.Therefore,a specific disaster reduction strategy for regional typhoon-flood-geological disaster chain should be proposed according to disaster reduction resources elements and disaster risk factors.