未来土地利用变化情景下海南暴雨灾害的社会经济暴露度分析

Analysis of Socio-economic Exposure to Rainstorm in Hainan under Scenarios of Changing Future Land Use

基于历史气象数据和耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)8个全球气候模式的未来气象模拟结果分析海南地区在不同重现期和不同排放情景下暴雨灾害危险性,并结合未来经济、人口、土地利用数据,进行暴露度研究,为研究区未来建设提供防灾减灾思路和参考。结果表明:①台风对历史暴雨频次的影响明显,贡献率约为26.15%。未来暴雨频次在RCP4.5浓度路径下呈上升趋势,增长速率约为0.16次/10年。20年一遇时,暴雨频次均值约为11次,100年一遇时,均值约为12次;以海口市、琼海市、儋州市、保亭市为高值中心。②在惯性、生态、高速三种社会发展情景下,建设用地分别保持约29.91km^(2)/年、6.85 km^(2)/年、31.72 km^(2)/年的增速。在生态保护发展情景下,林地、草地、水域分别保持2.69 km^(2)/年、0.25 km^(2)/年、2.91 km^(2)/年的增速,而在另外两种情景中都呈减少趋势。未来土地暴露量林地最大,耕地次之。③未来人口和经济暴露度空间分布上表现出一定的共性,呈点状分布,多集中在市区的城镇中心。随着时间的推移,暴露量高值区明显扩大,海口市变化最为明显。经济效应的贡献率达到90%以上,人口效应的占85%以上,气候效应占比小。④综合暴露度的高值区主要分布在海口市、三亚市等经济发达、人口密集、建设用地占比高的区域,次高值主要分布在沿海地区,内陆地区受人文因素等影响小,暴露度低。

Based on historical meteorological data and future meteorological simulation results of 8 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5),we analyze rainstorm hazard in Hainan with different return periods and different RCP scenarios.The exposure is assessed combined with future economy,population,and land use,and provide disaster prevention and mitigation ideas and methods for future construction in the study area.The results show that:1)Typhoons have an obvious impact on the frequency of historical rainstorms,with a contribution rate of about 26.15%.The frequency in the future will show an upward trend under the RCP4.5 concentration path,with an increase rate of about 0.16 times/10a.The average frequency is about 11 times when it occurs once in 20 years,and about 12 times when it occurs once in 100 years;Haikou,Qionghai,Danzhou,and Baoting are the high-value centers.2)Under the three social development scenarios of inertia,ecology and high speed,the construction land maintains a growth rate of about 29.91 km^(2)/year,6.85 km^(2)/year and 31.72 km^(2)/year respectively.Under the ecological protection development scenario,the forest land,grassland,and water area maintained a growth rate of 2.69 km^(2)/year,0.25 km^(2)/year,and 2.91 km^(2)/year,while in the other two scenarios,there is a decreasing trend.In the future,the amount of forest land exposure will be the largest,followed by cultivated land.3)The spatial distribution of population and economic exposure in the future shows certain commonalities,with a point-like distribution,mostly concentrated in the urban center of the urban area.With the passage of time,the high-value area of exposure has expanded significantly,with the most obvious change in Haikou City.The contribution rate of the economic effect is over 90%,the population effect is over 85%,and the climate effect is small.4)The high-level exposure areas are mainly distributed in Haikou,Sanya and other areas with developed economy,dense population,and a high proportion of construction land.The sub high-level exposure is mainly distributed in coastal areas,and the interior areas have low exposure.