宁波市气象因素和空气污染物对居民循环系统疾病死亡影响的分布滞后非线性模型分析

Distributed lag non-linear model analysis on influence of meteorological factors and air pollutants on death from circulatory system diseases in Ningbo,China

目的分析宁波市气象因素和空气污染物对人群循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响。方法对宁波2014—2018年气象因素数据和空气污染物数据及同期居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数进行统计学描述分析,使用分布滞后非线性模型来探究气象因素和空气污染物与宁波循环系统疾病日均死亡人数之间的关系。结果气温和空气污染物会对人群循环系统疾病的死亡产生影响,极端高温天气在第0~4天(lag0~4)累积增加人群循环系统疾病死亡风险最大,死亡风险最大增加为21.22%(95%CI:3.84%,41.52%);极端低温在滞后第2~7天(lag2~7)的累积增加人群循环系统疾病死亡风险最大,死亡风险最大增加为13.02%(95%CI:0.99%,26.48%)。PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)浓度的增加会使人群的循环系统疾病死亡风险增加。结论宁波市气象因素和空气污染物均可影响居民循环系统疾病的死亡风险,注意极端天气和高污染天气的防范,在日均气温处于低温或高温,应倡议居民减少外出或注意防护。

Objective To analyze the impact of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the mortality of circulatory system diseases in Ningbo, China.Methods Descriptive statistics were used to describe the data of meteorological factors and air pollutants, and the daily death toll of circulatory system diseases in Ningbo from 2014 to 2018. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and air pollutants and the average daily death toll from circulatory system diseases.Results Both temperature and air pollutants could affect the mortality of circulatory system diseases in the population. The maximum increase of mortality risk was 21.22%(95%CI: 3.84%, 41.52%) at a lag of 0-4 days(lag0-4) at extremely high temperature. The increase of mortality risk of circulatory system diseases was the highest at the extremely low temperature lag2-7 days, with the largest cumulative increase mortality risk of 13.02%(95%CI: 0.99%, 26.48%). The increases of PM_(10),PM_(2.5),and SO_(2) concentrations would raise the mortality risk of circulatory system diseases.Conclusion Meteorological factors and air pollutants can affect the mortality of circulatory system diseases in residents in Ningbo. Protection awareness should be raised in the case of extreme weather and severe air pollution days. When the daily average temperature is at low or high, it is suggested that the residents should reduce outdoor activities, and take protective measures.