中国碳排放关键部门碳市场减排策略的情景分析

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Market Emission Reduction Strategies for Key Sectors of China’s Carbon Emissions

碳市场是减少碳排放的有效政策激励手段,对其纳入行业进行分析,有助于提高减排效率。本文通过构建可计算的一般均衡模型比较基准情景、红利情景、替代情景、混合情景等碳市场减排策略的作用效果。同时分析不同碳市场情景对碳排放、经济增长、社会福利、清洁行业产出以及清洁行业消费的影响,并构建指标体系对此进行综合评价,得出优化的碳市场减排策略。研究结果表明:相比单一地对热力发电和可再生能源发电行业增加碳成本和碳补贴,通过扩大碳市场对高排放行业和清洁行业的覆盖范围可以提高减排效率。同时,在利用碳收益进行清洁行业的补贴时应注意碳收益在居民和清洁行业之间的合理分配,以避免极端化分配导致的经济效率损失。

The carbon market is an effective policy incentive to reduce carbon emissions. Analyzing its inclusion into the industry will help improve the efficiency of emission reduction. This paper constructed CGE model to compare the effects of emission reduction strategies including Baseline Scenario, Dividend Scenario, Substitution Scenario, MIX Scenario and so on. At the same time, the influence of each emission reduction scenario on carbon emissions, economic growth, social welfare, output of clean industry and consumption of clean industry was comprehensively analyzed by constructing the index system, and finally finding the optimal emission reduction strategy. The results show that compared with increasing carbon cost and carbon subsidy for thermal power generation and renewable energy power generation, the emission reduction efficiency of carbon market can be improved by expanding the coverage of carbon market to high-emission industries and clean industries. At the same time, when using carbon income to subsidize clean industry, we should pay attention to the reasonable distribution of carbon income between residents and clean industry, so as to avoid the loss of economic efficiency caused by extreme distribution.